iPad's launch last year set in a tablet frenzy among computing majors. Today, there's no PC or smartphone maker which has not launched or planned a tablet. However, is the market as rosy for rival tablets as it is for Apple devices?
According to Mark Moskowitz, an analyst with JP Morgan Research, investors and suppliers who have a stake in building iPad rival products may be exposing themselves to high risk.
In fact, he sees an "increasing risk of a bubble burst" in the tablet space in second half of 2011 itself.
According to a report in Apple Insider, Moskowitz has written the technical and form factor improvements of the iPad 2 are likely to make it tougher for the first generation of competitive offerings to play catch-up, thereby meaning that actual shipments could fall well short of plans.
Moskowitz also sees a risk for component suppliers in this. According to him, component suppliers stand to lose the most from a bubble burst.
"Based on our research inputs, tablet makers eager to emulate Apple's meteoric start are trying to secure components with inflated build plans," Moskowitz noted in the article. "Of note, glass displays, processors, and, to a lesser extent, NAND Flash are the components that could be most at risk."
Commenting on the upcoming rival tablets, Moskowitz said that aside from Motorola's Xoom and HP's TouchPad, the competitive offerings appear to be light on attractions.
Using discounted manufacturing plan estimates to project tablet shipments for the year, the analyst reportedly claimed that tablet makers will build approximately 65.1 million tablets in 2011. When compared against JP Morgan's estimates of 47.9 million tablets to be sold this year, these companies could find themselves with as much as 51 percent oversupply in a worst case scenario.
Presenting a rosy scenario for Apple, the JP Morgan analyst estimates that Apple could see as much as 100 percent sales growth year over year, resulting in more than 29 million iPads sold worldwide in 2011. He, however, has not elaborated on the reason behind such optimism.
No comments:
Post a Comment